Those of us engaged in commercial activities have never been able to say that the AFC playoffs are completely chaotic. But on Monday night, we started to have some clear understanding. A wind-affected game in Buffalo finally gave us an idea of the direction of the AFC. As we predicted, the Patriots beat the Bills 14-10 in the away game. Except for the three offenses, all other games were played. This victory brought the Patriots to the top of the league table and pushed the Bills back into the eight teams competing for three wild card seats in the AFC.
The AFC still has many problems. Some teams close to the top may completely withdraw from the game, while teams outside the top seven are still likely to win in their respective divisions. Overall, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, the 2021 NFL playoffs is the first time in 19 years, and each team in the conference has lost at least four games before the 13th week.
Week 13 also eliminated the 2021 playoffs for the first time. After losing 31-0 to the Colts, the Texans officially look forward to 2022. (The Lions managed to avoid a similar fate by allowing the Vikings to win their first victory of the season.)
Let's review the entire playoff scene on Sunday night. As always, we will combine ESPN's Football Strength Index (FPI) and a bit of human instinct to outline the direction of the league's development. Of course, until the chaos returns.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 98.6% FPI's chance of winning the division: 67.4%
The Patriots' return season continued on Monday night, and they won for the seventh consecutive time. According to FPI, this victory gave them a dominant position in the AFC East and provided them with the best opportunity to gain home court advantage so far, becoming the AFC's top seed (46.1%). This is a huge leverage game for the Patriots. If they lose, their FPI chance to win the division is only 15.5%, and an 8.5% chance to win home court advantage. The Patriots now have a goodbye for the 14th week to take a break for stretching exercises.
Next up: at the Colts (Week 15)
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 98.0% FPI's chance of winning the division: 96.4%
The Titans benefited from the loss of the Ravens on Sunday, but the Patriots' victory on Monday night prevented them from returning to the top spot in the AFC. In any case, when they sat at home and bid farewell, they returned to the goal contention they once had this season, including home court advantage in the playoffs. For now, they turned their attention to the last game, which included only one game against an opponent who currently has a winning record (against the Steelers in week 15).
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 83.4% FPI's chance of winning the division: 60.7%
In Baltimore, this is a maddening moment. Losing to the Steelers on Sunday put the Ravens out of the top spot in the AFC, making the AFC North's game even more tense, leaving them staring at a very difficult remaining schedule. In their last five games, Baltimore plans to compete with four teams that currently have a winning record and one team with a winning record of 0.500. It can be said that the Ravens are within the AFC top seed range and completely missed the playoffs. FPI still considers them to be the favorites of the AFC North, which is a matter of course, but the difference in possibility is real.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 87.7% FPI's chance of winning the division: 56.2%
On Sunday night, the Chiefs were in a wild position. Even after winning four consecutive games and five of the past six games, if they lose to the Broncos, they will be completely eliminated from the top seven of the AFC. Instead, they achieved double-digit victories through defense.
This victory allowed them to lead the Chargers by one game in the AFC West, and the Broncos and Raiders by two games. More importantly, in the battle for home court advantage in the AFC, they are statistically on par with the Titans and the Ravens, only half a game behind the Patriots. FPI did not give them an excellent opportunity of 10.9%, but it is worth noting that, given the situation six weeks ago, they even participated in the conversation.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 77.1% FPI's chance of winning the division: 37.7%
The Chargers are one of the most difficult teams in the NFL. In the past month, they have lost to the Vikings and Broncos while beating the Steelers and the Bengals. Together, they are in the AFC wild card game. Sunday's victory in Cincinnati is crucial in this regard. This pushed the Los Angeles conference record to 5-3, which was an important deciding game and clearly gave the Chargers a head-to-head advantage in the deciding game with another wild card competitor.
There are two very favorable games left in their schedule, against the Giants in week 14 and the Texans in week 16. Is the 9-8 record enough to qualify for the AFC playoffs?
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 42.7% FPI's chance of winning the division: 22.8%
There is no way to whitewash it. The Bengals missed their chance on Sunday. If they could beat the Chargers at home, they could have levelled with the Ravens in the north of the AFC and competed for the division championship in the final month. If nothing happens, they will surpass one of the many wild card competitors. On the contrary, Cincinnati is now firmly seizing the playoff spot, and the remaining five opponents are at odds of 0.500 or higher, and the FPI gives the team less than 50-50 chances of entering the playoffs.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 84.6% FPI's chance of winning the division: 32.5%
The Bills missed a huge opportunity on Monday night that allowed them to win the AFC Eastern Conference and challenge their home court advantage in the playoffs. In the end, though, the Patriots looked more comfortable on a classic night in Western New York. If the Bills win, they will have a 62.6% chance of winning the division championship and a 42.3% chance of winning home court advantage. Now, they are more likely to fight for the AFC wild card seats, the schedule is difficult, including games against the Pirates and Patriots.
The Steelers stayed alive in Sunday's game against the Ravens, but now they are turning quickly against the Vikings on Thursday night, and the FPI believes their chance of making the playoffs is only 18.8%.
The Colts beat the hapless Texans by more than 0.500. Although they will face the Patriots, Cardinals and Raiders when they return from the farewell game, from the FPI point of view, the Colts are in good shape. Indianapolis currently has a 52.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Losing to Washington on Sunday may be all she wrote for the Raiders, who have now lost three of the past four games. Of their five remaining opponents, four have a winning record, starting with their 14th week in the Chiefs. FPI gives Las Vegas a 10.1% chance of entering the playoffs.
The Browns had their goodbye in Week 13, and, strangely, they will return to play with the same opponent they recently faced (the Ravens). FPI gives Cleveland a 21.5% chance of entering the playoffs.
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The Broncos could have surpassed the Chiefs and Chargers with a victory on Sunday night to compete for the dominance of the AFC West. On the contrary, they were almost unable to attack and retreated to the AFC lineup. When Denver was preparing to play against the Lions in Week 14, according to FPI, it now only has a 20.0% chance of making the playoffs.
We included the Dolphins because they had won five games in a row before their bye, and they will have a favorable matchup when they host the Jets in Week 15. But they will end their games with the Titans and Patriots in the regular season, which is why FPI only gives them a 4.7% chance to enter the playoffs.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 99.9% FPI's chance of winning the division: 96.5%
The Cardinals are in better shape after the farewell week than when they entered, and now they can win the playoffs in Week 14. Sunday’s victory in Chicago was Kyler Murray’s return to quarterback, and DeAndre Hopkins returned to the receiver, bringing them close to almighty for a final push to secure the top seed in the NFC. But the Cardinals' remaining schedule is more difficult than the Packers or Buccaneers, because they still have to face three teams (the Rams, Colts and Cowboys) that currently have a winning record.
When Arizona pursues home court advantage in the NFC, there is a semi-weird question to consider: it has the NFL's best away record (7-0), and both losses are at home. Because the Cardinals want to maintain an advantage in the NFC West, three of their last five games were played at State Farm Stadium.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 99.9% FPI's chance of winning the division: 99.7%
On Sunday, the Packers' already considerable advantage in NFC North gained growth when they restarted their goodbye week. The defeats of the Vikings and Bears gave the Packers a four-game lead with five remaining. Of course, we haven't seriously considered anyone outside of Green Bay to win this department for some time. However, in a victory in Pittsburgh and a defeat in Minnesota, the crucial moment may come as early as next weekend.
In any case, it is only a matter of time; the Packers have one game left (Baltimore week 15), and the opponent is a team with a winning record. A more relevant question is whether they can surpass the Cardinals to become the number one seed in the NFC. FPI provides them with a 25.3% chance.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 99.9% FPI's chance of winning the division: 99.8%
After two consecutive losses in the middle of the season, the Pirates have now won three consecutive games. Sunday's victory over the Falcons allowed them to play six games at odds of over 0.500, tying the Packers' record. But because they were one game behind in the deciding game in the conference record, they are still in the position of the third seed.
More directly related is Tampa Bay's four-game lead in the NFC South. With three teams behind 5-7, the critical moment in Week 14 is more complicated than that of the Packers. If the Pirates win and the Falcons and Saints lose, this will happen to the Pirates. In any case, it is only a matter of time. Tampa Bay has one game left with a team with a winning record (against the Bills in Week 14), and according to FPI predictions, this makes winning the division close to a lock-in.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 98.7% FPI's chance of winning the division: 89.5%
It's not pretty, but the Cowboys ended their two-game losing streak in New Orleans on Thursday night and took another step toward securing the NFC Eastern Conference title. There are many opinions on the way the Cowboys play, but considering the absence of five coaches (including head coach Mike McCarthy) and two players due to the COVID-19 agreement, we should avoid judging anything other than the final result. Having said that, Dallas has two games to play against the surging Washington football team.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 95.1% FPI's chance of winning the division: 3.5%
The Rams did what any legitimate playoff contenders should expect on Sunday: They dominated the Jaguars at home. However, let's not assume that Los Angeles has solved all the problems that led to its current three-game losing streak. When the Rams head to Arizona to play in Week 14, we should get a better idea. Can they really piece together a late game in the NFC West to surpass the Cardinals? This seems unlikely in many ways.
The good news is that after the Rams dismantled the Jaguars, they almost locked up an FPI-based wild card team.
FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 40.3% FPI's chance of winning the division: 7.7%
Sunday's victory over the Raiders was Washington's fourth consecutive victory, completing a 0.500 journey after the 2-6 start. Now things are really starting to become interesting. In the next three weeks, Washington will have two games against the NFC Eastern Leading Cowboys. This means that it can ensure the division championship by winning, although some other winning or losing combinations can also do this.
But let us not overdo it. Beating the Cowboys twice, or making up for their two games in other ways in the last five games, will be a challenge. FPI provides a 7.7% chance for Washington. There are still two games with the Eagles, and its position in the wild card game is difficult to guarantee.
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FPI's chance of entering the playoffs: 69.0% FPI's chance of winning the division: 0.1%
The 49ers missed an opportunity to add some weight to their wild card status in Seattle on Sunday and lost a game full of errors, which made them more vulnerable to challenges from the Eagles or one of the other three teams. this place. Now, for wild card competitors, they have one of the most difficult schedules left. The Bengals, Titans and Rams games are sandwiched between home games against the Falcons and Texans. San Francisco's away record this season is 4-2, but in the remaining away games, the opponent's strength is daunting.
The Hawks’ remaining schedule is not as friendly as it once seemed, considering that it includes two games against the turbulent Washington, but Sunday’s rout against the Jets allowed them to be on any of the NFC wild card teams. Use it when there is a problem with the support. The Eagles had a bye in Week 14 and then the first of two games against Washington in Week 15. FPI stated that Philadelphia has a 37.5% chance of completing the season in the playoffs.
The National Football League should probably enact a rule prohibiting the Vikings from entering the playoffs after giving up their last touchdown on Sunday to the unwinning Lions for a soft zone defense. This is the only fair practice. But, to be honest, Minnesota is not as far away as it seems, and will host the Steelers in a quick turn on Thursday night. FPI still has 25.1% of Vikings entering the playoffs.
The Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady on their goodbye weekend. Some people will interpret this as a sign of the end of their season, while others think it gives them a chance to return to the playoffs. We will lean towards the former, even if the Panthers are ready to host the Falcons in Week 14. FPI agrees because only 3.6% of Carolina made the playoffs.
In total, the Falcons have lost four of the past six games. Since October, their only victory has been against the hapless Jaguars and the understaffed Saints. The Panthers were a defeatable opponent in Week 14, but there is not much reason to be optimistic about the surge in the Falcons in the coming weeks. Atlanta has a 3.2% playoff chance with FPI.
Thursday night was a highly leveraged game for the Saints, and they could have moved into 7th place. Instead, they lost a winnable game, and FPI now sets their playoff chance at 22.0%, entering the 14th week against the Jets.