by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

The more the week goes by in Tokyo, the more Denis Shapovalov is looking like the favorite to win the second ATP tour event of his career. Is he the best bet for your Fritz vs Shapovalov picks in the semifinals? Read on to find out.

Odds as of Oct. 7 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Japan Open

Shapovalov is the favorite in the odds above over Fritz, listed as -121 on the moneyline.

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With Shapovalov having looked impressive in Seoul last week, but in a losing cause to Yoshihito Nishioka on the final day, it was unclear whether he would carry over that disappointment to the bigger tournament in Tokyo or keep the momentum going.

It turns out he kept it going. And arguably he’s playing even better.

Shapovalov’s decision to opt out of the Davis Cup and Laver Cup after the US Open, and use that time to rest and reload, appears to be paying off as many of his rivals played those events, and don’t look as fresh.

The 23-year-old hasn’t dropped a set in three matches. And most impressive was his 6-4, 6-3 beatdown of Borna Coric Friday.

Coric came into the match with a 4-1 head-to-head.

Taylor Fritz VSDenis Shapovalov 24 (Oct. 28, 1997) Age 23 (April 15, 1999) Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. Birthplace Tel Aviv, Israel 6-5 Height 6-1 3 Career ATP Singles Titles 1 No. 11 (Oct. 3, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 10 (Sept. 21, 2020) No. 11 Current Ranking No. 22 $8,537,480 Career Prize Money $9,748,393 40-17 2022 Won/Loss Record 27-20 1 Head-to-Head Wins 4 Fritz Gets a Free Pass From Kyrgios

The quarterfinal match between Fritz and Nick Kyrgios was expected to be a hugely entertaining battle.

In the end, though, Kyrgios withdrew just minutes before they were to take the court, citing a knee injury (nothing new for him).

The Aussie also withdrew from the doubles semifinal.

It was a blessing for Fritz, who has had a rough week and a half with a COVID quarantine in Korea – and a mad rush to get to Japan and play his first-round match the same day they sprung him.

The two have met five times in the pros. They even met in the juniors, when Shapovalov was 15 and Fritz just turned 17, in the third round of the Orange Bowl in 2014. (Fritz won that one).

But the last time was over a year ago, at a tournament in San Diego the week before the rescheduled Indian Wells event. It was right in the backyard for Fritz, who grew up 20 minutes from the venue.

Shapovalov won that day. But Fritz went on to beat Matteo Berrettini, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev on his way to the Indian Wells semifinal the following week.

With Fritz at a career-high No. 11 this week, this is the first meeting in which his ranking is higher than Shapovalov’s.

He’s having a better, more consistent year. Shapovalov has been up (and down – a lot) even though he’s still just outside the top 20.

But the tables have turned, somewhat.

Ultimately, the difference between the two is that while Fritz is an extremely talented player, Shapovalov can be an incandescent player.

He can also be an unforced errors machine. That’s the beauty and the curse of his talent.

In the last 10 days or two, he has been the former, not the latter. And when he’s on, he has far more weapons to beat Fritz with than the American does to beat him. Which is likely why the head-to-head is the way it is.

On Tour, Denis Shapovalov has reached 20 semifinals in his career (5-13, 1 W/O):

> 15 on hard, 3 on clay, 2 on grass > 5 in the month of October (including this in Tokyo) > 9 between September and November

He definitely knows how to finish a season. pic.twitter.com/jOsGoU6OC0

— Relevant Tennis | Stats & Info (@RelevantTennis) October 7, 2022

Shapovalov can produce enough power to expose Fritz’s defense, which is very willing but not quite at a top-class level. That’s not unusual for lanky 6-foot-5 guys. But it’s the way to get through him.

Ultimately, this week feels like it’s Shapovalov’s to lose.

Best Bet: Shapovalov in Three Sets (+310)

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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.

Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.

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