In this case, the numbers don't tell the whole story.
On third-down conversions, the Alabama Crimson Tide offense is 19-for-43 this season, which works out to 44.19 percent. Normally one might say that's pretty good, but it's eighth in the Southeastern Conference and 51st in the nation.
That's a bad sign for the 2022 Crimson Tide, right? Especially since Alabama was third in the nation the previous year at .520, and was first in 2020 at .589.
Sure, Alabama was 7-for-12 on third-down conversions against Vanderbilt last week, but just 2-for-6 when starting quarterback Bryce Young was in the game.
But take a closer look.
Young connected with Ja'Corey Brooks for a 15-yard gain on third-and-10.
He also hit freshman Kobe Prentice for 15 on third-and-7.
As for the failed conversions, Young and Prentice couldn't connect on another pass, tight end Cameron Latu had a catch short of the first down, and the rest were on rushing plays.
Young was 3-for-4 passing on third downs, and twice converted third-and-long.
So far this season, Young is 12-for-19 on third downs (63.2 percent), for 117 yards, 6.2 average, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. His longest completion's been for 15 yards.
His passer rating is 149.6 on third downs. All four of the sacks he's taken have been on third down as well.
Like one would expect, Young's passer numbers are a significant step down on third downs this season.
Overall, he's 83-for-121 (68.6 percent) for 1,029 yards, 8.5 average, with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. It adds up to a passer rating of 172.2.
Last season, when Young won the Heisman, he was 366-for-547 (66.9 percent), for 4,872 yards, 8.9 average, with 47 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He was sacked 39 times, and had a rating of 167.5.
One of the most remarkable things about Young's sophomore season was that he got better on third downs. His completions percent went up from 68.0 on first downs, and 65.0 on second downs, to 71.7 percent on third downs.
His passer rating went up as well, from 161.2 and 168.7 on first and second downs, respectively, to 205.2 on third downs.
Now we add the context. Young doesn't have a go-to receiver like John Metchie III, or Jameson Williams, at least not yet. Developing that kind of chemistry takes time, reps, and let's be honest, a lot of talent — usually proven talent.
Alabama's receiving corps is basically brand new. Young is developing a rapport with not just the starters, but basically everyone. It's sort of like what you hear with defensive backs trying to learn Nick Saban's scheme: Knowing it is one thing, but knowing it to the point you don't have to think about it is another.
We're starting to see flashes of what happens when things start to click, like with Brooks.
Take away the ball that went off his hands and was subsequently picked off by ULM, and the sophomore has had back-to-back impressive games. Against the Commodores he paced the Alabama receivers with six catches for 117 yards. The two scores from 21 and 34 yards away weren't just his first two touchdowns this season, but the latter, was the longest throw/completion Young's had yet this season.
As the familiarity grows, the play-calling will become more elaborate and complex, and players will start to emerge. This group already has a lot of potential including Jermaine Burton, Prentice, Isaiah Bond, Kendrick Law, Christian Leary and Emmanuel Henderson Jr., while JoJo Earle, Tyler Harrell and Aaron Anderson are all working their way off injuries.
With that in mind, there are three reasons for some strong optimism:
1) Young's key overall numbers, meaning completion percentage and passer rating, are already up despite all the turnover on offense.
3) Third downs, which will be the key moving forward, and what everyone should be looking at statistically.
The more comfortable Young gets with the receivers, and the more the line protects him, the more he'll be throwing downfield. The question isn't if his third-down numbers will get better, but by how much.
Put that together with the third-down defense, as opponents have converted 11 of 59 opportunities for a success percentage of 18.64, which is second in the nation, and Alabama has its recipe for making another national title run.
I've written before about how both Saban and Jackson State coach Deion Sanders both use the Aflac ads they do together to help support some of their favorite causes.
For Sanders its HBCU schools, and for Saban it's the Nick's Kids Foundation and building a house with Habitat of Humanity whenever the Crimson Tide wins a championship.
Sanders, though, has really put his money where his mouth is when it comes to his latest passion. I can also confirm from experience that when he gets behind something, he really gets behind it.
Full disclosure: Years ago, when starting out as a journalist my first job was with the News-Press in Fort Myers, Fla., the hometown of the one famously known as "Prime Time." The newspaper didn't have the greatest relationship with him, but we did have a good one with his impressive mother, Connie Knight.
A memorable story for me before he played in Super Bowl XXIX with the San Francisco 49ers was talking to fans in his old neighborhood about the two-sport star going for his first championship. They were excited and said they hoped to see more of him back home (one suggested he help build a local ice arena).
Sanders may be a showman, but he also backs it up. He's given both Jackson State and HBCU schools a huge presence and mouthpiece, and has been shaking up the way things have traditionally been done in college football.
This year alone, he donated half of his $300,000 coaching salary to help renovate JSU’s stadium in Mississippi’s capital city, helped the team's biggest game against Alcorn State have a sold-out record crowd, and even has a former NFL head coach, Mike Zimmer, formerly of the Minnesota Vikings, helping out.
This is on top of Travis Hunter, arguably the top recruit in the nation for the Class of 2022, surprising college football fans across the country and playing for Sanders at Jackson State. Sports Illustrated called the move, “probably the most shocking decision in the history of college football recruiting.”
Sanders is also not alone. Other HBCUs have brought in big-name coaches like Eddie George (Tennessee State) and Hue Jackson (Grambling State).
So what does this have to do with Alabama outside of the ad campaign?
Simple, it's time the the SEC and Alabama consider playing teams from the Southwestern Athletic Conference, the Football Championship Series league the Tigers play in that’s made up entirely of HBCUs.
Any game between an SEC program and an HBCU probably wouldn't be close, and there's really not a lot for an SEC school to gain with such a matchup. But the difference it could make could be huge, and not just in football.
According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, the most recent numbers show a 4.7 percent year-over-year drop in undergraduate enrollment at colleges and a 9.4 percent decrease since the onset of the pandemic.
The demographic most alarming in the decline is Black freshmen with enrollment down 18.7 percent since spring 2020.
Alabama, of course, is an exception. It just announced a record of 38,645 students enrolled in fall 2022. The record enrollment was boosted by the largest freshman class in school history (8,037).
Chances are we won't be seeing the Crimson Tide suit up against a SWAC program in the near future, especially since the SEC could soon go to a nine-game conference schedule. Alabama already has a bunch of high-profile home-and-home games under contract through the next decade, and mismatches no longer lead to a jam-packed Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Consequently, if any program in the SEC should play Jackson State it should probably be Ole Miss or Mississippi State, so at least it could attract in-state fans. Rebels coach Lane Kiffin was asked about it at media days in July and he gave a very "Prime Time"-like answer with "It's been great to see Deion's success and how well he's doing. I don't know future plans on that, but that would be exciting."
Ole Miss and Jackson State haven't played each other since the Tigers' inaugural season in 1911.
Meanwhile, Utah State and Louisiana Monroe recently got more than $1.9 million to play at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with Warhawks coach Terry Bowden saying the blowout loss will pay for a new weight room. For an FCS opponent, Alabama is set to pay Mercer a $600,000 guarantee for a 2024 meeting.
Imagine what those kinds of payouts could do for an HBCU school.
Don't look know, but the 2022 phenomenon known as the Alabama women's soccer team may just be the start of a potentially landmark year in Crimson Tide women's athletics.
At 10-1-1, Alabama soccer is ranked No. 5 in the latest United Soccer Coaches top 25 poll and showing no signs of slowing down. Four of the last five opponents failed to score, including two SEC teams, as the Crimson Tide has notched seven shutouts in 12 games.
"There's not much to it besides the chemistry," Felicia Knox said on the SEC Network broadcast after having a goal and two assists in the 3-0 win over Texas A&M. "It's just all flowing and it's working."
We're used to gymnastics and softball being considered elite programs, but they're in the process of getting a lot of company.
For example, women's cross country is No. 10 in the nation, and tops among SEC schools.
Volleyball is 6-9 under new coach Rashinda Reed, but just got a big commitment from Leilia Suamili Toailoa, who was a Maxpreps Underclassmen All-American last year.
The swimming and diving team is coming off a program-best fourth place finish at the NCAA Championships.
The one that's been a long time coming, though is basketball.
Year 10 of the Kristy Curry era got under way this week and all the pieces appear to be in place to have her best season yet at Alabama.
The Crimson Tide returns seven players who contributed over 95 percent of the points scored last season, to go with six newcomers including five transfers.
"Not only do we have the talent in place, but the character," head coach Kristy Curry said during the press conference in conjunction with the first fall practice this week.
"I'm so excited about where we're at from a culture standpoint in all aspects. It's a completely different place compared to nine years ago to the day. It's pretty special."
Returning as graduate students are Megan Abrams, Hannah Barber, Brittany Davis and Jada Rice as well as senior JaMya Mingo-Young.
"This group is amazing," said Barker, who yes, is the daughter of former Crimson Tide quarterback Jay Barker.
This isn't just a team that should return to the NCAA Tournament after barely missing last season, but be in the hunt for a good seeding.
Alabama football has been known for its streaks over the years.
Some impressive ones that the program is currently enjoying include being ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 at some point of every season since 2008, and the ongoing 54-game winning streak against non-conference foes in the regular season, including a 40-game home winning streak at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama had a 100-game winning streak against non-ranked opponents that was finally snapped last season, along with Saban's 24-game winning streak facing head coaches who had at one point been one of his assistants.
Two streaks that will be on the line this month are Alabama's 15-game undefeated string under Saban against SEC rivals Arkansas and Tennessee. Both opponents have been ranked in the top 10 this season, although the Razorbacks dropped to No. 20 following last week's gut-churning loss to Texas A&M.
The last time the Razorbacks won against the Crimson Tide was in 2006, and they still needed double-overtime to do so at home. Quarterback Mitch Mustain's 11-yard touchdown pass to tight end Ben Cleveland set up the winning point, a Jeremy Davis kick for the 24-23 victory. Running back Darren McFadden had 112 rushing yards on 25 carries and scored a touchdown to lead Arkansas.
The last Tennessee win was during that same season, 16-13 in Knoxville. The defense picked off Erik Ainge three times (two by Simeon Castille), but running back Arian Foster scored a late touchdown to secure the last win for the No. 7 Volunteers.
But neither school can claim to have suffered the most, and the longest, at the hands of the Crimson Tide.
The longest unbeaten streak in Alabama history is 31 straight games, which Kentucky endured from 73 years, from 1923-1996. The only non-win Alabama had in the series during those seven-plus decades was 7-7 tie in 1939.
Frank Thomas was the coach and he can be forgiven since Alabama claims two national titles under his direction.
But in terms of pure winning streaks in a series, with no ties, both Arkansas and Tennessee are only scratching the top five.
Note: The following list only includes each school once. It needs to be noted that Mississippi State also has 15-game, and has an ongoing 14-game losing steak against Alabama, and Kentucky and Vanderbilt both had 14-game losing streaks as well.
* Does not include a forfeit and two vacated wins, bringing the total down from 23.
In case you're wondering, just missing double-digits are Auburn (1973-81) and Louisville (1941-ongoing) with nine, with Florida (1964-86, 2009-ongoing) and Texas A&M (2013-20) both at eight.
That includes every team in the SEC West.
There was plenty of frustration and outrage expressed on social media on Thursday night about the injury Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took in the second quarter, which landed him in the hospital with head and neck injuries.
Thankfully, he was discharged and heading home with the team, but Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel correctly called it "a scary moment" during his postgame press conference.
The knee-jerk reaction, of course, was that the Dolphins mishandled the situation, didn't care about their quarterback and acted irresponsibly. Remember, this is the organization that recently forfeited two draft picks and owner Stephen Ross was suspended and fined $1.5 million for trying to skirt the rules.
Not even a doctor should make that leap without knowing all the facts, or being privy to the medical details on the quarterback.
Granted, it looked bad, and came just four days after the former Crimson Tide standout suffered a back injury against the Bills. He left that game in the second quarter and reportedly cleared concussion protocol, so he returned to the field. Afterward, the quarterback told reporters his back “locked up” after the hit, causing him to stumble.
That little detail was being ignored by those lashing out.
Tagovailoa was also considered questionable to start up until about two hours before kickoff on Thursday, which seems consistent with a back injury.
Now if it does come out that Tagovailoa did suffer a concussion against the Bills, and the Dolphins swept it under the rug, the entire coaching, training, medical and personnel staff should all be fired and never allowed to work in sports again. The ownership should also be stripped of the team.
The number of lawsuits resulting from that would be staggering.
So it was important to note what McDaniel said after the loss to the Bengals.
The coach was asked point-blank by Sun Sentinel beat reporter David Furones if he could say with 100 percent certainty that Tagovailoa did not suffer a concussion or other head injury against Buffalo. His answer was yes.
McDaniel was also asked if there was anything in hindsight that he would have done or could have done differently after the injury against the Bills?
“Absolutely not," he said. "If I would have, that would be irresponsible in the first place and I shouldn't be in this position."
Give the coach the benefit of doubt, and Tagovailoa as well. If something was indeed amiss, the truth will eventually come out. Moreover, McDaniel didn't do the equivalent of a Bill Belichick stiff-arm with the media regarding the status of his quarterback.
He came across as believable and genuinely concerned even though it was just his fourth game as an NFL head coach.
"Every single NFL game that is played, there's an independent specialist that specializes in the specialty of brain matter," McDaniel said. "So yeah, for me, as long as I'm coaching here, I'm not going to fudge that whole situation if there's any sort of inclination that someone has a concussion, they go into the concussion protocol. It's very strict. People don't very or stray. We don't mess with that. I never have and as long as I'm the head coach, it will never be an issue that you guys have to worry about."
What fans and everyone else should be questioning is why the league continues to play Thursday night games just four days after most of the teams play on Sunday.
Granted, it's a pure money grab, and the league doesn't want to schedule opposite high school (Friday) and college (Saturday) games, but at some point the well-being of the players has to come into play.
It's just not enough time for teams to adequately prepare physically, mentally or emotionally.
Per Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated, the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick met for about 10 hours over two days at the Big Ten headquarters outside of Chicago. CFP executive director Bill Hancock said the group “made progress” toward the end goal—expanding the College Football Playoff by 2024—but no specifics, answers or details were provided. No final decisions were made (or at least they weren’t made public).
“Earlier is icing on the cake. We’re going to have our cake in 2026,” Hancock said. “Can we ice it now and start earlier? That’s what we’re working on now.”
Commissioners next meet in Dallas on Oct. 20, which some believe is a deadline of sorts to determine whether expansion can happen before the current TV contract expires after the 2025 season
The Rebels have drawn a lot of attention with their new helmet that looks like something the Houston Oilers wore to a paintball-gun ambush, but not because of the design.
The camo-blue helmet also has the Realtree logo on the side. Per the Sports Business Journal, there's no rule against that ... yet.
"We examined NCAA equipment rules related to competition to ensure we were compliant," Ole Miss athletic director Joseph Keith Carter said. "This included no logos on the actual equipment worn on gameday as opposed to what was shared in our marketing assets."
The first batch of camo apparel sold out online in 12 hours, according to Dyehard.
Speculation is growing that Lane Kiffin is getting frustrated in Oxford. He'd previously vented about how the transfer rules were like free agency that would only benefit the biggest programs, and how unchecked NIL rules does the same.
Now his focus is on the Ole Miss student body, which is still trying to make sure it wins the tailgate.
During Saturday's win over Tulsa, which had an announced attendance of just 60,641, the student section was virtually empty after halftime. It's become a regular thing.
"When you come back out, run out of the tunnel and it looks like a high school game playing in a college stadium, you can't let that affect you," Kiffin said on Monday.
He continued: "There's psychology to that obviously. There's home-field advantage for a reason. When it goes the other way, you kind of have that feeling that, 'Man, are we still really playing in a game here?' The players have to fight that. We use that as a learning lesson for our guys. If that's the case, that's the case. I'm worried about what I can control. I've tried social media in here for two years. We'll worry about what we can control and that's getting our players ready to play."
Just thinking out loud, but Jimmy Sexton is Kiffin's agent, and Juice, his dog, could have a really big back yard in, say, Nebraska.
Pay attention to this quote by an unnamed SEC recruiter to Jeremy Crabtree of On3 on how NIL is influencing recruiting:
“The sands are shifting. NIL isn’t just a recruiting pitch anymore. It’s a retainer. It’s a salary. Most originally thought you’d just have to focus on telling recruits, ‘This is what you can potentially get from NIL if you come here.’ Now it’s just as important to tell your players that you have a collective that will take care of them before they hop in the Transfer Portal.”
Added a Pac-12 recruiter: “The Transfer Portal is the NIL battlefield that nobody is really talking about. You can try to win that battle by keeping your roster together through NIL compensation.”
With school after school having its own collective, though, NIL is arguably becoming less important because the small financial differences are being outweighed by other factors, like preparing players for the NFL.
In other words, the rich are getting richer. What else is new?
The best advice my late friend Pedro Gomez (former ESPN baseball guru) gave me was after I stopped covering Major League Baseball, and living in Wisconsin as a Packers beat writer. Green Bay was getting ready to host San Francisco, and he told me to drop my rule of not going out the night before covering a game and find the man they call Z, Michael Zagaris.
A quick explanation. This was roughly 20 years ago and since there wasn't a hotel big enough in Green Bay to accommodate any NFL teams they all stayed in Appleton, almost 30 minutes to the south. The home of Lawrence University, the main thoroughfare where the hotel was located is known for one thing especially: Bars.
It didn't take long to find him. Pedro told me to drop his name, buy Z a beverage of his choice, get him talking, and then kick my feet up and listen. Why? Because in addition to being the 49ers' team photographer, he had shot many top musicians including The Grateful Dead, The Clash, Blondie, The Who and Tom Petty.
He told me things about The Rolling Stones and Lynyrd Skynyrd that made my jaw drop (and Z, if you're reading this, you swore me to secrecy and I've kept my word).
Zagaris has done a new book Field of Play, which will be published on Tuesday. It includes photos of some former Crimson Tide greats like Joe Namath and Ken Stabler, but many of the anecdotes are just as good as the stellar shots.
Per the article that appeared in the October 2022 issue of SI, one of the best ones involves Joe Montana, who was at the time being dogged by rumors of cocaine use. At the airport in Denver, in 1985, the quarterback saw Zagaris and playfully chucked a snowball at him. Zagaris ducked and fired back, “Exhibit A!” After getting the picture, of course.
I'm happy to finally return the favor from two great nights of storytelling. It just so happened the 49ers came back three years later, and I knew exactly where to find him ...
• Conor Orr's The NFL’s Top Head Coaching Candidates for 2023 has a familiar name listed second among approximately 60 names, former Alabama linebacker DeMeco Ryans, the impressive defensive coordinator of the 49ers. “DeMeco is going to be a head coach," Kyle Shanahan said. "He’s too good not to be, whether it’s this year, whether it’s next year, whether it’s anytime.”
• When you start looking at the fallout from Tagovailoa's injury, start here: Tua Tagovailoa’s Injury Makes It Complicated to Love the NFL.
• Five Teams Who Passed on Jalen Hurts in 2020. Yeah, we're looking at you Steelers and Seahawks.
• Going back to Prime Time at Jackson State, Sanders was connected to the TCU job last season, and his name is being floating for Auburn should Bryan Harsin get the ax as many expect, although that seems pretty unlikely. Georgia Tech, though, would be interesting, especially since the two-sport star is considered an Atlanta Braves legend.
“It’s nice to be mentioned,” Sanders said during a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show. “… So you’re saying a guy can come from HBCUs and coach at a higher level, but a quarterback shouldn’t be considered at the next level. I don’t know how that works.
“…If I were to go to the next level, you don’t think the quarterback is going to the next level? … What I’m saying is that it is just funny you say I’m good enough and my name is being tossed and hit around like a fastball to [Aaron] Judge. I like that, though. I like that thought process.”
The quarterback who Sanders is failing to mention is his son Shedeur Sanders, whom he's also touting as a Heisman Trophy candidate.
• Why an Air Force Infractions Case Could Be Key to Speedier NCAA Resolutions
• This stuff is getting serious: Northwestern Shares Plans for New $800 Million Football Stadium
Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.
This article first appeared on FanNation Bama Central and was syndicated with permission.
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